Washington's Un-winnable War in the Middle East
January 2010
The
Bush
administration’s so called “War on Terrorism” was a failure. Almost a
decade later, the world is gripped by greater fear of the next
terrorist atrocity than ever before. By
focusing on Arab democratization and military action against the
jihadists Washington’s diagnosis was like voodoo medicine.
The making of walking bombs
Interconnected religious and political causes stand behind jihadism and terror. Quranic assurances that paradise is the reward of jihadists prepare the mind set of future terrorists. Islamic zeal makes self annihilation against tyrannical non-representative Arab rulers, against their American supporters, against Israel’s humiliation of the
Arab peoples, and against the empowerment of the Shi'ite population of Iraq, and by extension Iran, as a result of the Bush administration's misadventure in Iraq have been turning angry extremist Sunnis into walking
bombs. To brush these causes aside or pretend that they are unconnected is to breed more
Jihadists and more terrorism.
Military solutions alone will fail to end terrorism
To
end terrorism, military action alone will not succeed against fanatics
whose greatest ambition is to be martyred. The Obama administration's plan of January 2010 to bolster Yemen's capabilities to fight Al-Qaeda
would not be effective unless Washington combines military might with
three additional strategies: 1) Pressure Arab kings and presidents to
implement genuine religious and political reforms. At the top of the
list is taming Wahhabi
indoctrination of extremism and violence against other Muslim sects and
non-Muslims. 2) De-politicize
the Bible and the Quran in order to end the century old conflict in
Palestine. 3) Repair the damaged Shi'ite/Sunni relations that the Bush
administration created in Iraq.
Are these strategies attainable? To be realistic, the answer is negative. Why?
Arab religious and political reforms is a mirage
Genuine
religious reform in Arab countries means separating Islam from the
state through replacing Shari'a laws by modern laws. In so achieving,
the debilitating control of the ulama (Muslim clerics) over the masses would also ease.
To secularize, a
towering charismatic leader, a combination of a Martin Luther and a
Kemal Ataturk would be needed. The Arab masses, ulama, and rulers, however, would turn Islam into a shield against the emergence of such a leader.
The Arab masses are inseparable from Islam.
The Prophet, His Companions, the Quran, and the holy sanctuaries in
Mecca, Medina, and Jerusalem are all Arabic. Also, the founders of the
four Sunni schools of jurisprudence, which survive today were all
Arab (though, Abu Hanifa was the grandson of a Persian slave). The Arab
peoples are proud in the belief that God described them in Verse 3:110
as: “The best of peoples evolved for mankind.” The Arab peoples
feel that Islam is an Arabic religion and that they are the defenders
of the "true" Islam. A BBC survey of 68 countries in 2006 found Egyptians as having the strongest religious identity. The Arab masses: poor, illiterate,
superstitious, and under the spell of the ulama are generally politically
quietist. The minority of Islamists are violent theocratic
dictators. The minority of intellectuals has little credibility or popular support.
To the ulama, maintaining Shari'a (Islamic law) rigidity maintains
their jobs and privileges. To the rulers, Islam helps prolong their non-representative tyrannical rule.
Pandering palace ulama help their benefactors along. The palace ulama preach “Obey God and obey God’s messenger and obey
those of authority among you” (Quran 4:59). They also quote the
Prophet on every turn: “Hear and obey the emir, even if your back is whipped and your
property is taken; hear and obey.” The ulama teach that obedience to Arab presidents and kings is a form of piety. Arab
kings and presidents fear that genuine religious and democratic reforms
might end their rule. So, they keep their masses intoxicated by Islamic
dogma and superstitions; notwithstanding, Islam's effect on
radicalizing frustrated young Muslims.
Under such conditions, it is unlikely that genuine religious and democratic reforms would evolve in Arab
countries for a very long time, if ever? Instead of chasing a mirage, Washington would do better to support
benevolent dictatorships in Arab countries and fight Islamist radicalism.
De-politicizing the Bible and the Quran is a fantasy
Politicizing
Genesis 15:18 politicized the Quran. Genesis 15:18: “The Lord made a covenant
with Abraham, saying, unto thy seed have I given this land from the
river of Egypt unto the great river, the river Euphrates" radicalized
despairing Arabs. Defeated,
humiliated, and powerless, many Arabs took refuge in Islam, fueling a Jihad war that could possibly last for a thousand
years.
A purely Jewish state is impossible to attain. The Palestinian
Israelis (1.3 millions) are a quarter of Israel’s Jews (5.2 millions).
Unless the Palestinian-Israelis vanish, demographic realities will eventually make
them the majority. If the occupied West Bank and
the Gaza Strip are taken into account, the Palestinians are already a majority.
Western
democratic and secular ideals ought to inspire a
single, democratic, and secular state for Palestinians and Jews instead
of the two-state solution. Having lived together generally peaceably
for 1300
years, Arabs and Jews can live together in peace again. Islam venerates
Judaism. Arabs believe they share a common ancestry with the Jewish
people. The Quran praises Abraham as the first Muslim and describes
Islam as the Religion of Abraham. The Quranic Chapter 14 is named after
Abraham and the Quranic Chapter 12 is named after Joseph.
A single-state eliminates the obstacles that have bedeviled the
two-state solution since the 1993 Oslo Agreement: Jerusalem, borders,
security, water, settlements, and the refugees’ right-of-return. Most
importantly, the Arab masses shunned Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt
(1979) and Jordan (1994) but would embrace a single state.
Whether it would be a good bargain to exchange a partial and
declining Jewish exclusivity in an unstable two-state solution for a
durable single state for Jews, Muslims, and Christians is a question Israel alone can answer. The
likelihood of de-politicizing the Bible and the Quran, however, is not
encouraging. Confident in its superior military might and unlimited U.S. support, Zionism
is not likely to give up the Bible any time soon.
Iraq
will be remembered as Mr. George W. Bush’s gift to Shi'ite Iran: a watershed since
Saladin ended the rule of the Shi'ite Fatimids in Cairo in 1171, a triumph
for the Khomeini revolution and for Shi'ism. The Royal Institute of
International Affairs, Chatham House, concluded in 2006 that Iran is the most
influential ‘external’ power in Iraq today. Without firing a shot Iran
won the war for Iraq.
Iran’s
goal to control southern Iraq is age-old. Southern Iraq
houses the holiest of the Shi'ite holy shrines, plus ninety billion
barrels of crude oil. Shi'ites in Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Saudi
Arabia’s
oil rich Eastern Province, and Yemen would seek Iran’s help to end
Sunni subjugation--Witness Bahrain's Shi'ite noises for equality, the
Houthi rebellion in Yemen, and the powerful Hizbollah in Lebanon.
Egyptian President Mubarak charged in 2006 that Arab Shi'ites were more loyal to Iran than to their own countries. Sectarian
conflicts threaten to destabilize the region, breeding hoards of
Jihadists; until the Sunni majorities either accept the march of Shi'ism
or stop it.
There
can be as many scenarios for Iraq’s future
as a fertile imagination conjures. Irrespective of whether U.S. forces
stay in Iraq or depart, however, Iran’s hegemony over the oil rich
eastern shores of the Arabian Peninsula has become unstoppable. Staying
means that the U.S. will be challenged by a nationalist/religious
liberation movement and a Shi'ite-Sunni sectarian conflict. Staying is
expensive, especially when
the result is to enhance the power of anti-American ayatollahs and
Iraqi politicians linked to Tehran. Departure
means leaving southern Iraq to Iran and a nasty regional Shi'ite-Sunni
conflict.
In its frustration, the U.S. and/or Israel might attack Iran; a move that
would make the Iraq disaster by comparison look like a child’s play.
Al-Qaeda must be praying fervently for such a catastrophe to happen!
The
Bush administration's misadventure in Iraq has weakened Washington's
hand in the Middle East, leaving it with little choice but to
recognize Iran's rapid ascension towards becoming the new hegemon over
the politics of the world's richest oil region.
A crystal ball view
Over the past five decades, the Democratic Party has been as
responsible for the problems that engulf U.S. relations in the Middle
East today as the Republican Party. It is naive to think that the
parochial designs of those self-interest groups and lobbyists that
crowd the Washington landscape and produced such policies would change much any time soon. It is doubtful that
the lessons from the past decades have awakened Washington to the
realities of Islam and the Arab peoples. In the November 2006 congressional elections and the 2008 presidential and congressional elections the
Bush administration was
punished for its mismanagement of the American economy and for
America’s losses in Iraq. The Bush administration was not punished,
however, for pulverizing Iraq, or for its defense of Israel’s
occupation and humiliation of Arabs, or for supporting Arab tyrannical
rulers. Unless
the American electorates demand changes in these areas,
Islamist orthodoxy and Jihadism will continue to proliferate, with all
the consequent cycles of attacks and counter attacks.
What is the likelihood of defeating terrorism? In the short
term, as long as the confrontation involves the Bible and the Quran, the likelihood for defeating terrorism would be slim. In the long term, however, if the leaders; Americans,
Arabs, and Israelis, eliminate the causes that stand behind terrorism,
there might be hope. Otherwise, the confrontation threatens to engulf
the masses, East and West, in a war between Christianity and Islam: a
“clash of civilizations.
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