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Dubai and its White Elephants
March 2010
On November 25, 2009, Dubai World,
the wholly owned subsidiary of the Emirate of Dubai announced that it would
request a 6-month standstill on all debt servicing starting December 2009. The
announcement effectively gave notice that the company’s debt would be
rescheduled. The
announcement came on the eve of Eid Al-Adha holiday during which Dubai banks
were closed from November 26 to 29. For these
four worrisome days, at least to Dubai’s panicked lenders and investors, the company
maintained complete silence.
What exactly is the size Dubai World’s debt is unclear.
Transparency is not a trait of organizations in Dubai, or the wider Arab world.
Estimates, however, put the company’s mountain of debt at around billion.
As for the Dubai Emirate’s debt, estimates vary. The
International Monetary Fund estimates Dubai has outstanding loans of
9.3 billion. These enormous sums were spent mainly
on too many white elephant projects.
On November 30, 2009, upon returning from the Eid holiday Dubai’s
financial chief said the Emirate is not a guarantor of Dubai World's debt. He
maintained that the group's loans were obtained “on pure commercial bases”.
The following day, on December 1, 2009, the national day
celebrations of the United
Arab Emirates, Dubai's ruler declared: “Mixing up between the Dubai World group
and the government of Dubai was wrong”. To add insult to injury, the ruler
added, when asked about the reaction to Dubai world’s standstill request and
restructuring plans: “They do not understand anything”.
Three weeks earlier, on November 9, 2009, the ruler of Dubai was
even more combative. Sensing the financial hurricane about to engulf his
emirate and to ingratiate himself with the very rich ruler of Abu Dhabi, he
said: “There is no Dubai and Abu Dhabi, we are one… We will be there for each
other when we need to… And I want to tell those people who doubt the solid
relationship between Dubai and Abu Dhabi to shut up”. It is curious to observe
that on January 4, 2010, upon the inauguration of the world's tallest building
in Dubai, its name was changed from Burj Dubai to Burj Khalifa, in honor of the
name of the ruler of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Khalia Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
The conclusion from these statements is that, depending on the
final outcome of the forthcoming rescheduling negotiations, lenders should be
expected to agree to one or a combination of the following possibilities:
Forgive a proportion of the original indebtedness, take an equity position in
Dubai World’s schemes for a part of the loans, extend maturities, reduce
interest rates, etc.
The
manner in which the announcement of the “standstill” was made, just after the
banks and all government offices were closed for four consecutive days during
which no emirate official was available to respond to concerned bankers and
investors worldwide reflects poorly on the professionalism of Dubai’s
bureaucrats and leaders. Insults like, “they do not understand anything” and
“shut up” are breathtakingly arrogant and disrespectful.
Stock markets around the world dropped
precipitously. Investors everywhere, including U.A.E. individuals and private and sovereign institutions, lost
hundreds of billions of dollars. This
story is not a great moment in the history of Dubai, the U.A.E. and the Gulf
Cooperation Council.
Although,
Dubai did not provide an explicit and irrevocable guaranty with respect to
Dubai World's debt; thus, has no legal obligation to repay Dubai World’s
loans, and despite the recklessness of the bankers who neglected to demand a
guaranty, Dubai has, nonetheless, a moral obligation to pay up on time all
maturing interest and principal. The issue here is not only legal. The issue
involves that age-old famous Arab code—honour and morality. Remember that
Dubai owns 100% of Dubai World. Dubai’s ruler appoints, dismisses, holds
accountable, and rewards Dubai World’s board of directors and senior
management. In this case, honour and morality are superior to legality.
Abu
Dhabi’s failure to expeditiously commit itself to a full rescue of Dubai is
misguided too. Dubai’s ruler serves as the Prime Minister and Vice President of
the U.A.E. As such, the U.A.E. has a moral obligation to protect the honour,
integrity, and the good standing of the office of its Prime Minister and Vice
President.
The
Gulf cooperation Council is to be criticized as well. To be oblivious to the
travails of a member of the Council reflects negatively on the standing of the
Council collectively and individually. The international community will
forever remember what this Council means and how it works (or
does not work).